Copycat Kubina

In the event of Tomas Kaberle waiving his NTC on March 4^th, I’d be willing to bet that his fellow countryman, and teammate, Pavel Kubina, would follow suit.

If the Leafs’ top two offensive defensemen are subtracted from the lineup, not only will a wealthy amount of skill and potential be included to their farm system, but it’ll pave the way for a top 5 pick at the 2009 Draft.

Kaberle, who currently has 3 goals and 26 points, is on pace for yet another 50-point season. His countryman, Kubina, is on pace for an impressive 16 goals and 40 points.

Considering these stats, it’s no secret just how impactful Kaberle decision will be regarding his NTC.

Kubina, who also has a NTC, first joined the Leafs in the summer of 2006. Among his list of possible suitors, Kubina chose the city of Toronto largely due to one reason only… Kaberle.

Initially, Kaberle was stubborn towards the subject of waiving his NTC and abandoning his contract to the Leafs. Insert a newly implemented –and much needed – rebuilding plan, and Kaberle’s views are suddenly different. While he would be content with staying in Toronto, Kaberle told reporters that he’d be willing to listen to Burke if he proposed a trade to him. Carrying a 4.25 million dollar contract, you can bet there will be tons of interest for the services of #15.

Kubina, on the other hand, comes with a 5 million dollar price tag. Not terribly overpaid considering some of the contracts that were dished out last summer, but it’s still a hefty contract to submerge into a lineup. Still, that didn’t stop the San Jose Sharks at last year’s Trade Deadline. Kubina’s decision – one that I finally stopped shedding tears over – vetoed a trade that could have potentially brought Steve Bernier and a draft pick to the Leafs.

Oh, how depressing that Trade Deadline truly was.

But now, perhaps from the pity of the hockey gods, Kaberle is open to trade talks. And if he is willing to move, don’t be surprised if Kubina follows suit. After all, Kubina is 31 years of age and has nothing to gain by playing for the Leafs’ organization at this point.

In a season where reaching the playoffs was the primary goal, it’s understandable how a player doesn’t want to abandon his club, and team followers, to pursue another team. Now, however, things have changed. The majority of the Leafs’ fan base is rooting for a chance at selecting John Tavares, and considering how crappy the Isles have played this season, the Leafs are going to have to turn it down a notch if they wish to grasp that holy, godly, and miraculous 1^st overall pick.

So, I think I speak for all of Leafs Nation when I say:

Please, Kaberle? Please!?

ronguillet@gmail.com

No Untouchables + Kaberle and his NTC

Brian Burke made his first two moves as Leafs GM – acquiring Brad May from the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for a conditional 6^th round pick in 2010, and assigning Nikolai Kulemin to the Toronto Marlies.

Minor moves, but perhaps Burke has finished analyzing his team and is ready to reshape the roster to his liking.

With the NHL Trade Deadline fast approaching, just under two months now, determining the players’ market value is the first step in order to reshape this club effectively – let’s be honest, trades haven’t been one the Leafs’ strongest suits these past few years… don’t worry, I’ll spare you the list.

Looking at the Leafs roster, it’s fairly evident there are no untouchables. However, Tomas Kaberle, Pavel Kubina, Alexei Ponikarovsky – who is on pace for 26 goals and 59 points – and Nikolai Antropov could all bring in some quality assets, hopefully in the form of prospects and draft picks. And if goaltender Vesa Toskala could find the game that made him critically acclaimed in 07-08, then the Leafs will possess an important bargaining chip.

Aside from Kaberle, who, for it’s worth, will make his fourth all-star game appearance, the Leafs are short of players who are capable of garnering high-quality assets via the trade route. That said, it’s important for Burke to handle the Kaberle situation carefully. Stating publicly that he’s not wanted, ala Cliff’s approach on McCabe, will not ensure proper value for the services of #15.

When asked if he would consider waiving his NTC this season, Kaberle replied with an interesting comment:

”It’s pretty much with Brian if he’s going to talk to me or not,” Kaberle told the Sun. “I haven’t talked to the GM and my agent didn’t talk to him. Let’s leave it at that for now.” (Toronto Sun)

My, how things have changed.

It hasn’t even been a year since Kaberle exercised his NTC, rejecting a trade that would have brought Jeff Carter and a 1^st round pick to the Leafs.

Depressing, I know. But fear not, my fellow Leafs companions.

Kaberle’s offensive awareness, and PP-saaviness has him on pace for a second straight 50-point season (6 G, 52 PTS compared to his 8 G and 53 PTS last season). While his defensive game is suspect, it’s no secret that he’s most effective in the oppositions zone. Those who express interest in his services will be in need of a boost on the PP, so the lack of a consistent two-way game will not affect his value. While a similar package to the Carter+1st round may be unlikely, it’s not totally out of the ball park. If Kaberle manages to up his game with even more offensive prowess, I get the feeling we’ll be licking our lips at the rumours come March 4. Excuse my Sudbury Wolves bias, but if we happen to acquire another 1st round pick, I would jump at the chance of drafting Marcus Foligno - it would have to be late round, but I’m telling you, this kid has the ability to spark plug an arena in seconds, whether it’s from monster hits, adrenaline pumping fights or rattling the opposition, and he also knows his way in the offensive end.

If Burke plays his cards right, and manages to trade with a future-first attitude, the available players at his disposal can generate a wealthy return of prospects and draft picks - and god knows we need the latter.

March 4th. The day I avoid all interactions with the outside world.

ronguillet@gmail.com

Will Jeremy Williams finally stick with the Leafs?

Williams, who scored in each of his first three NHL games, over three NHL seasons, has never been able to stick with the Maple Leafs, until now...

Drafted 220th overall in the 2003 NHL Entry Draft by the Maple Leafs, Williams, 24, has yet to play a full NHL season in Toronto. Over four seasons, he has only played 23 games, notching seven goals and one assist after yesterday's 3-2 OT win against the Devils. This year, Williams has three goals and one assist in only three games (he's already +4), after the Leafs recalled him on December 8th when Niklas Hagman went down with concussion-like symptoms.

Known for his offensive abilities, Williams is a great playmaker who has a knack for putting pucks in the net. Williams has also really improved his acceleration and top-end speed in recent years, which has helped him even more offensively. He also seems stronger on his skates this season, especially with the puck.

The Regina native has seen about 15 minutes of ice-time per game this season, an increase over his previous call-ups, which is a good indication that he will likely stick for the whole 2008-2009 season, especially when newly-appointed Leafs' GM Brian Burke starts getting rid of some veterans with hefty contracts (Kaberle, Kubina, Blake for instance).

It's a make or break season for Williams, who at 24, might not figure in the Leafs' plan anymore if he can't step up and produce consistently in the NHL.

Welcome Back, Toskala + The Future of Justin Pogge

Vesa Toskala has reclaimed his role as the Leafs' top player.

Similar to last season, Toskala got off to a slow start, struggling to provide his team with solid goaltending. Looking at how the defense has performed this season, consistent goaltending is a necessity.

But have no fear, Toskala is here... finally.

The re-emergence of the Finnish goaltender is not only good news for his teammates, but to Brian Burke and the expanding brass of ''Tank Nation''.

While the goaltending of Toskala will ensure more W's, it will also raise his value. After all, the NHL Trade Deadline is on the horizon, and even without Mats Sundin it's going to be an interesting time for the Buds. Will Burke opt to trade long-time Maple Leaf Tomas Kaberle? How about defenseman Pavel Kubina? Is Nikolai Antropov's time as a Leaf coming to an end? But, pertaining to the context of the blog, the real question is whether or not Toskala will be serving as a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs come March 4th.

If Toskala is traded, it would be unwise of the Leafs to appoint Curtis Joseph as the starting goaltender. A much more viable option would be to call-up goaltending prospect Justin Pogge.

While many have argued that such a move could rattle the confidence of the 22-year old, playing for the Leafs for a couple months would be beneficial to his development in contrast to serving on the Toronto Marlies, who are currently ranked 11th place in the AHL's Western Conference.

Playing for the Marlies will progress his development no further. The time is now (well, March 4th) for the Leafs to deploy another one of their top prospects to the big league.

Unlike previous seasons, the Leafs are now in the midst of rebuilding. Inserting Pogge in the later stages of the rebuilding phase seems counter-productive to their future. At the very least, he must be a member of the team by next season. If not, his confidence could be affected, and as proven by Toskala earlier this year, confidence is a crucial aspect between the pipes.

This all hinges on the play of Toskala, however, so I speak for all of Leaf Nation (and Tank Nation) when I say:

Keep it up, Vesa!

The Trade Bait

With the announcement of Brian Burke as Leafs GM, the trades are inevitable.

This is not Burke's team, it's Cliff Fletcher's.

That is not a bad thing. In fact, Fletcher's acquisitions have instilled hope to a fanbase in dire of need of it - and I speak for all of Leaf Nation when I say it feels damn good to be building for the future.

That said, Burke's intentions are not necessarily the same as Cliff's. While he won't trade away all the assets brought in, he may attempt to change the core of the club, making the Leafs his team.

So Leafs player beware, you're now auditioning to keep your job in Toronto.
Here's a list of players I think Burke will try to move at some point this season:

Nikolai Antropov (contract year/2.050M cap hit):
The 6'6 Kazakhstan native is off to another solid season, garnering 9 goals and 19 points in 25 games. While Antropov has had issues with the injury bug in the past, he stayed relatively healthy last season, playing 72 games, and has yet to miss a contest this year. Antropov is also on pace for a second straight 50-60 point season. Combine that with his solid defensive game, and Antropov is a valuable commodity to any NHL club. Unlike Leafs players in the past, he is a solid contributor who doesn't own a NTC, so expect him to be moved in the coming weeks. Oh, and did I mention Burke dislikes European players?

Niklas Hagman (4yrs/3M cap hit):
Hagman has been a model of consistency, responsible defensive play, and an aggressive offensive attack. The speedy Finnish forward has 8 goals and 19 points so far this season, which puts him on pace to shatter his career-high 41 points last year. Considering this, Burke may look to trade the 29-year old, whose services are highly regarded around the league. While trading him may break the chemistry of the Hagman-Grabovski-Kulemin line, the assets coming in return could help the Leafs long-term.

Tomas Kaberle (3yrs/4.25M cap hit):
This will be a tricky one, but with Wilson making Kaberle ride the pine during the 1st period against the Phoenix Coyotes on Thusrday, convincing him to move may not be an impossible task. While the services of #15 are crucial to the Leafs' PP, and their entire offensive game, his return could bring in some valuable, young assets for the Leafs. However, Burke may want to wait until the Trade Deadline before unloading the offensive defenseman. With Kaberle's recent struggles, his value is not as high as it could be, and taking into account the Leafs' situation, they have to aim for the best possible return to further their quest for a deep and talented prospect pool.

Vesa Toskala (2yrs/4M cap hit):
The Finnish goaltender is on thin ice. Toskala has been struggling since the season's debut, and many Leafs fans are beginning to wonder if this will be ongoing affair. With the departure of Mats Sundin, many were expecting Toskala to carry the load and stand as the unprecedented leader of the club. That hasn't happened, and perhaps the added pressure is responsible for the inconsistency of the 31 year-old goaltender. Whatever the case, it would be in the Leafs' best interest to let Toskala play through his struggles. If he regains his form by the Trade Deadline, trading him would be a logical option.

Pavel Kubina (2yrs/5M cap hit):
Kubina, -9, has seen better days. Still, his value is relatively high and he's an asset to any club seeking a defenseman who can play both sides of the ice. While he refused a deal that would have sent him to the Sharks last season, it must be noted that he initially accepted the transaction. Considering the Leafs' struggles won't be disappearing anytime soon, the 31 year-old may look to pursue his career elsewhere.

Alexei Ponikarovsky (contract year/ 2.105M cap hit):
If you were to ask me, I'd say this is a guarantee. Ponikarovsky's highest point totals were in the 2006-07 season with 21 goals and 45 points. This season, he's garnered 8 goals and 18 points, which puts him on pace for 25 goals and 56 points. His value has never been higher, so trading him now could benefit the Leafs. It should be noted, however, that Ponikarovsky has been demoted to the third line, being replaced by Lee Stempniak. If his point totals begin to diminish, so will his value. If Burke is looking to unload Ponikarovsky, he should find some takers right away.

One thing is for certain, it's an exciting time to be a Leafs fan, not a Leafs player.

A look at Brian Burke's probable moves before the trade deadline

During Saturday's press conference to the Toronto media, Brian Burke all but confirmed that the Leafs are officially out of the Sundin sweepstakes. “I don’t think we fit his profile as a team,” said Burke. He referred to the 2-year $20 million offer from the Vancouver Canucks, putting the emphasis on the fact that Sundin's comeback is not about money, but about playing for a contender.

Therefore, if Burke is not looking to add Sundin to his team, this means he will likely try to unload some veterans.

Look for Burke to start moving players in January as he will study his team in the next few weeks to see which players fit his style of players: physical, gritty, tough, hardworker, reliable defensively, etc.

Goaltenders: Curtis Joseph is having a tough season, posting a 3.95 GAA and a woeful .861 save percentage. He hasn't won any game yet for the Leafs. The veteran goaltender might be asked to hang his skates to give some seasoning to Justin Pogge, the Leafs' goaltender of the future.

Defensemen: Tomas Kaberle could also be on the move, provided that he lifts his no-movement clause, by the trade deadline. Kaberle, a great puck-moving defenseman, would become a hot-commodity in the NHL, espcially around the trading deadline, as there won't be many offensive defensemen available this season, save for Jay Bouwmeester. Signed through 2010-2011, Kaberle is quite affordable at $4.25 million/season. Pavel Kubina could also be traded around the deadline, but his high salary $5 million/season makes him hard to trade.

Forward/defenseman Ian White was also on the trade market at the beginning of the season, but his versatility proved to be quite useful when the Leafs' defense got depleted by injuries (Van Ryn, Finger, Frogren).

Forwards: Alexei Ponikarovsky and Nikolai Antropov have never lived up to their expectations even though they are big forwards loaded with skills. They never took advantage of their large frame to get free in front of the opponents' net.

The 6'4'', 220 lb, Ponikarovsky has never reached 50 points over his 8-year career with the Leafs. His best season has been 45 points in 2006-07. This season he is on pace for 57 points, so it would be a good time to trade as his valuewill never be higher.

The 6'5'', 230 lb, Antropov had a career-year last season, notching 26 goals and 56 points in 72 games. Antropov, who is on pace for 64 points this season, is set to become an unrestricted free-agent at the end of the season. He could very well become a highly-sought after player at the trade deadline for a team that is looking for depth and size at centre.

Brian Burke would also really like to trade inconsistent Jason Blake, but his $4 million/year bloated contract makes him nearly impossible to move. With three years left to Blake's contract after this season, expect Brian Burke to buy him out unless he starts producing all-star caliber numbers on the ice. Blake has only 10 points in 19 games this season.

Another candidate to be traded earlier to this season would have been Matt Stajan, but his stellar play (20 points in 22 games) after being a healthy scratch given him some kind of breathing room. It's the first time Stajan is logging big minutes as the Leafs first-line centre and he has responded well. His affordable salary at $1.75 million per year also makes him an attractive player for Burke.

Who would you move? For draft picks, prospects or younger established players?

Senators beat Leafs in shootout

OTTAWA (AP)—The Ottawa Senators kept it simple in a shootout against Vesa Toskala and the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Rather than trying to deke the goalie, Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson beat Toskala with shots to give Ottawa a 2-1 victory on Thursday night in a game overshadowed by the Maple Leafs reaching a deal with former Anaheim GM Brian Burke.

Spezza scored on the Senators’ first attempt.

“He plays a little deeper than most guys so that was kind of my reasoning behind shooting,” Spezza said.

Alfredsson scored on Ottawa’s third attempt to give the Senators their second straight victory.

“Toskala stood on his head but Auldie’s just been rock solid for us,” Spezza said. “He hasn’t allowed too many goals, his numbers are great, he’s playing with a lot of confidence and he seems to be a guy who’s really seeing the puck well and playing really well for us right now.”

Mike Fisher returned to the Senators’ lineup and opened the scoring early in the first. Kulemin drew Toronto even moments later.

Toskala had a great game as he stopped 34 shots to help the Maple Leafs earn a standings point despite extending their losing streak to five (0-3-2).

Ottawa outshot Toronto 35-26 overall, including a 5-0 margin in overtime as Toskala came up with a pair of big stops on Fisher in the final seconds of the extra period.

The Maple Leafs ended a team-record 17-game stretch without being outshot.

The Senators hadn’t played since their 4-1 win over the New York Rangers on Saturday ended a 0-4-2 skid.

Fisher, who missed two games because of a knee injury, got credit for his third goal of the season 3:54 in when his centering pass toward Shean Donovan went into the net off Toronto defenseman Tomas Kaberle’s skate.

Kulemin tied it 59 seconds later when he tapped in Mikhail Grabovski’s pass through the crease for his fourth goal.

Ottawa left wing Dany Heatley showed his frustration after Toskala stopped his slap shot 12 minutes into the middle period when he skated over to the left side and swung his stick, slamming it hard against the boards.

“It was a pretty good chance and I didn’t really get all of it,” Heatley said.

Jason Smith and Dominic Moore dropped the gloves at the end of the second period.

Notes

Maple Leafs RW Andre Deveaux made his NHL debut. Deveaux, recalled from Toronto of the AHL on Wednesday, had six goals and two assists in 13 games with the Marlies this season. … Donovan left the game in the third period because of an upper-body injury. He didn’t return.