Aurevoir Kaberle...For Now

Tomas Kaberle will be traded on March 4th. I guarantee it.

Kaberle, who's dawned the Leafs uniform for a decade, would be wise to waive his no-trade clause at the NHL Trade Deadline. This would allow him to control his fate, rather than have Burke decide it for him when his contract nullifies his NTC in the off-season due to the Leafs' failure to make the post-season this year.

While the Trade Deadline will limit Burke's options for potential suitors for Kaberle, his 4.25M cap-hit will make #15 a hot commodity for GM's looking for a puck-moving defenseman. While Burke has made it perfectly clear that it would take a significant offer for him to ask Kaberle to waive his NTC - a 1st round-pick, a roster player and a prospect to be exact - the desperation of GM's looking to bolster their line-up makes that asking price realistic - and by god, is it good to be a seller!

Reports have been circulating that Kaberle has given Burke a list of 10 teams he'd be willing to play for, but Burke shot down the reports, stating that Kaberle "has not given me a list of 10 teams he'd like to be trade to." While this is somewhat concerning for those hoping Kaberle is no longer a Leaf by March 4th, I don't think this will prove to be too much of a problem if GM's come a knockin' on Burke's door. Kaberle's intentions may be to stay in Toronto, but if a team, most likely a contender, decides to give in to Burke's demands, you can bet Kaberle will be aware of the benefactors for not only himself, but the team he's been serving so long. I found this quote particularly interesting:

"I want this clear, Tomas Kaberle made it clear to me, right to my face, 'I don't want to go anywhere else, I want to be a Toronto Maple Leaf'," Burke said. "He believes we'll get it turned around. He loves the city, wants to be part of the turnaround." (TheFourthPeriod)

While I admire Kaberle's passion for the Blue and White, this seems like the Mats Sundin dilemma all over again. Considering Burke's asking price, Kaberle must be aware of the talent and youth he'd import to the Leafs' youth cupboard by departing the team. Kaberle's contract prolongs to the 2010-11 season, so he'd be seperated from the Leafs for one season before becoming a UFA. Kaberle made it clear that he "wants to be part of the turnaround," but realistically, the Leafs won't start to rise in the Eastern Conference standings until atleast the 2011-12 season, when the youth they hopefully acquire begin to establish their roles for the Leafs' future. With that said, if Kaberle feels as strongly for the Leafs as he seems to suggest, then he should realize how much his departure would benefit the line-up, ensuring him a stronger club if he decides to return in the summer of 2011.

So basically, Kaberle, you have to choose. The red pill, which ensures you to play out the 2008-09 season, or the blue pill, which sends you to another team, bringing in loads of the talent to the Leafs' roster, and giving you the opportunity to come back a year later.

The choice is yours... (THE BLUE PILL! FOR THE LOVE OF GOD!)

ronguillet@gmail.com

The Schneider Effect: The Canadiens' Power Play On Fire

Since being acquired by GM Bob Gainey from the Atlanta Thrashers last Monday, Mathieu Schneider has played three games for the Canadiens. The veteran defenseman already has two goals and one assist, all on the power play, and despite being -4 during that span, Schneider has played very well for the Habs, logging about 23 minutes of play per game.

With Francis Bouillon's long term groin injury, Schneider's acquisition is even more important for the Canadiens to get some stability on their top two defenseman pairings. Schneider has played with Andrei Markov, while Mike Komisarek has played with Roman Hamrlik.

Guy Carbonneau doesn't have to over-utilize Patrice Brisebois or Josh Gorges, with Schneider around.

However, the main beneficiary of Schneider's presence has been their power play. In 12 attempts over the past three games, the Canadiens have scored seven goals; that's a 58,33% rate!!

The Canadiens are now ranked 17th in the NHL after this recent boost. They hovered around the 25th rank for most of the season.

With a motivated Kovalev, an explosive power play and Alex Tanguay's imminent return, GM Bob Gainey will be in good position at the deadline to make the right move to consolidate the Canadiens' position as a playoffs team.

Senators Surprisingly acquire Mike Comrie from Islanders

Ottawa Senators GM Bryan Murray acquired centre Mike Comrie and defenseman Chris Campoli earlier today in exchange for veteran forward Dean McAmmond and San Jose's 2009 first-round draft pick, obtained from the Tampa Bay Lightning in August 2008.

Comrie, 28, has 20 points in 43 games for the Islanders this season. He played 41 games with the Senators in 2006-07, recording 25 points. Comrie, who is making $4 million this season, will be an unrestricted free agent at season's end.

Campoli, 24, is an offensive defenseman who is having a rough year in New York. In 51 games, Campoli has 17 points, but he also has a -20 plus-minus differential. Campoli, who only makes $633,333/year, is a very affordable defenseman.

McAmmond has seven points in 44 games with Ottawa. He has played on the Sens' fourth line for most of the season. He will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. The 35-year-old forward has played 916 regular season games.

GM Bryan Murray decided to help his rookie coach by getting offensive help. With Captain Daniel Alfredsson rumored to be out for a few weeks because of a fractured jaw, Murray acted fast in replacing Alfie's offensive output. Comrie should fit nicely in Ottawa's new up-tempo forechecking style, while Campoli will help Ottawa's transition game.

GM Garth Snow still has plenty of veteran players to trade before the trade deadline, such as Guerin, Weight, and Witt. Nice job getting a first-rounder for Comrie and an underachieving Campoli.

I do believe, however, that it's too little too late for Ottawa to clinch a playoff berth. The Senators are currently 13 points back from the eight seed occupied by the Sabres. They do have two games in hand.

The Senators will visit the sinking Montreal Canadiens on Saturday afternoon in a very important Northeast division matchup.

Rookie goaltender Brian Elliott will be in goal.

Kovalev's Fate

It's time for a new era in Montreal.

The notion of unloading Alexei Kovalev from the Habs' line-up may seem absurd to some fans of the team, but I believe this is a crucial step towards their path to the Stanley Cup.

Whether you're a fan of Kovalev or not, it's undeniable that he's a tremendous talent. The problem with him is that he only plays when he wants to, and this is a huge problem. To put it simply, his inconsistency affects the immediate, and future success of the Habs. He neglects his role as a veteran, and doesn't insert any sort of leadership to the Canadiens' young roster. And forget about leading by example, Kovalev drifts in and out of consistency, and his production is largely determined by his occasional hot streaks.

With recent news of Bob Gainey deciding to leave Kovalev at home because of "lack of emotion and production," I would say his time as Canadien is all but done. While he may come back to the Canadiens line-up with a spark in his engine, how long will it be before it runs dry?

The Canadiens are a young team whose core compromises of Carey Price, Sergei Kostitsyn (assigned to AHL, it'll do him so good to get his game back in order), Andrei Kostitsyn, Tomas Plekanec, Chris Higgins, Andrei Markov, and Mike Komisarek (among others). Kovalev's inconsistency and unwillingness to commit to the Canadiens has a much larger affect compared to the goals and points he contributes to the team.

If Kovalev is traded from the Habs, not only would they acquire a decent return for the 35 year old (Gainey would be wiser to unload him at the Trade Deadline; GM's are more desperate for rentals), but it would leave a top 6 roster spot available. Stop dreaming about Vincent Lecavalier for a second, and consider not only the talent that resides within the Habs' young players (Pacioretty, Maxwell, etc.), but the variety of UFA’s that can benefit the Habs Stanley Cup aspirations.

UFA's (Forwards) that I think could benefit the Habs:

Todd Bertuzzi: Enjoying a nice comeback season with the Flames. He's not the offensive force he once was, but his grit and ability to crash the net would benefit the Habs, especially a young player like Pacioretty, who plays a similar game.

Marian Hossa: He may re-sign with the Red Wings, but if not, Gainey should be willing to dish out some cash for a player of his caliber. His two-way play would fit in well with Carbonneau's system, and he'd stand as the Habs’ top offensive weapon.

Brendan Shannahan: It's likely Shannahan may opt to retire after this season, but if he doesn't, I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of Shanny in a Habs uniform. His leadership would go a long way for the Habs' young core. It's possible, if Gainey wants him.

There are a few others on the list, but I believe these players would be the most effective for the Habs. And while there are UFA's such as Mike Comrie, Mike Cammarelli, and Brian Gionta available, the Habs are better off targeting sizable forwards who can play an effective two-way game, rather than small players who are limited in the physical department.

It all starts with Kovalev. His departure will allow the Habs to take an important next step towards the Stanley Cup, rather than float in inconsistency and false hope - sounds alot like Kovalev's game, doesn't it?

The Canadiens have the tools to win a 25th Stanley Cup, but there is still work to be done, even if it is the centennial year. Despite what the Canadiens' current slump may suggest, they only require more experience from their young players, and a few minor moves before they're worthy of grasping the Silver Mug once more.

ronguillet@gmail.com

The List

*The following is an opinion piece of who I think is on their way out of Toronto by March 4th (not the off-season)*

The Leafs are in the midst of, yet again, a mediocre season. Unlike previous years, however, the Leafs have refrained from the up-and-down, "I BeLeaf in 8th place" facade that was commonly grouped with the Leafs during the past few years. Rather, the Leafs have been posting L's on the calendar regularly this season, "rewarding" their fans with dissapointing efforts.

On the flip side, the Leafs now have possesion of a much younger team compared to years past, containing a variety of young talent in Luke Schenn, Nikolai Kulemin, Mikhail Grabovski, Jiri Tlusty, Anton Stralman, and Justin Pogge (among others...I think). While the aforementioned, besides Luke Schenn, don't have superstar potential, they are the beginnings of a new era in Toronto, one that hopefully brings a Stanley Cup to a franchise in dire need of one.

Pertaining to the point of this blog, here's a list of the players that I think will be moved. Hopefully the Burke-era is kicked off by an influx of youth and potential to be imported to the Leafs' roster.

Jason Blake (51 GP, 21 G, 44 PTS)

Many think Blake will not be traded due to his lucrative contract, but Blake's emergence as the Leafs' top player is beyond impressive, and he's making a serious case for comeback player of the year. While Blake's cap hit is at $4M, he's performing at a level which makes his contract terms somewhat of an afterthough. While it may be a little difficult to find a suitor that has the required cap space, it shouldn't be to much of a problem if Blake keeps up his current play. Also, consider Mathieu Schneider, who was dealt to the Montreal Canadiens, makes a whopping $5.75M this season, and at 39, he's not exactly the offensive force he once was.

Potential return: Roster player (salary return) and a mid-level draft pick/prospect

Tomas Kaberle (49GP, 4 G, 30 PTS)

Kaberle's been a loyal member of the Maple Leafs for a decade now, and he will be remembered fondly, but his tenure is coming to an end with the Buds. While Kaberle's defensive game leaves much to be desired, his offensive game is his bread and butter. A premier puck moving defenseman in the NHL, Kaberle will fetch the Leafs their most valuable return at the Deadline. While he won't get the Leafs Jeff Carter and 1st round pick this time around, his value should ensure the Leafs a quality return in the form of draft picks and prospects. And considering his $4.25M cap-hit, Kaberle will be generating a lot of interesnt around the league, the only problem is whether he decides to waive his NTC or not.

Potential return: 1st round pick and a decent prospect

Nikolai Antropov (52GP, 18 G, 42 PTS)

I wouldn't be afraid to guarantee this one. Brian Burke publicly stated that he wouldn't hesitate to trade Antropov if interest was expressed for the 28 year old. While Antropov went through a grueling slump (0 goals in 18 games), Antropov is on pace for another 50-point campaign. His cap-hit is also movable at $2.05M.

Potential return: 2nd round pick

And that's it, folks. Not half the team, just three core players. While many think players such as Vesa Toskala, Alexei Ponikarovsky, and Pavel Kubina will be traded, Burke can't turn this team around in one swift motion. It will take time, and chiping away at the core of the Leafs is a start. The remainder of the players who Burke doesn't want will be dealt with during the off-season, when he can assess the team more clearly and determine who the Leafs may acquire through free agency to fill the void left by the departed players.

While this season will once again be proclaimed as a disappointment, let's think more positively, and determine the 2008-09 season as the year of change.

The Leafs will once again raise Lord Stanley, and it all starts on March 4th.

ronguillet@gmail.com

Step Away From The Police Cruisers

Yes, the Montreal Canadiens are playing their worst hockey of the season. Yes, Carey Price couldn’t stop a beach ball if Wade Belak was shooting at him (assuming he hits the net). Yes, Kovalev has once again disappeared. Yes, yes, yes.

Are the Habs doomed? No. Atleast not in the long-term.

I won’t sugarcoat it, the Habs are playing abysmal hockey. The penalty kill is ineffective, and the lack of a quality offensive defenseman on the powerplay, besides Andrei Markov, is staggering production. While Gainey may opt to acquire a PP specialist via trade on March 4th, let’s step away from this whole 100th anniversary façade and analyze this situation objectively. If Gainey pursues a top4 defenseman at the Deadline, you can bet it’ll involve some quality young prospects from the Habs. And while the Canadiens have a wealth of prospects to dish out for current “obligations”, is it really necessary?

After all, it’s not set in stone that Jay Bouwmeester will be traded at the Deadline, as the Panthers are ranked 7th overall in the Eastern Conference, so trading him would hold them back considerably from their post-season goal. That said, Bouwmeester is a UFA at season’s end, and you can bet there will be a ton of teams lining up for him. The Habs, containing a young team, have the advantage of having a lot cap space.

Now, if the Canadiens were to acquire Bouwmeester by trade, they would lose a considerable amount of prospects/picks and players, and then, if they’d wish to resign him, would have to pay nearly the same as he’d get in the free agent market.

So nevermind about this whole 100th anniversary “we’re going for it all” crap. Enjoy the honour for what it is: lasting 100 years in the NHL. It doesn’t mean you have to win THIS year, and expectations shouldn’t be blown to unrealistic expectations because of it.

The Habs have an abundance of young prospects that have the potential to be NHL stars. That’s a fact. Simply put, Habs fans jumped the gun this season, and expected far too much from their players. After all, their core consists of Carey Price, Sergei Kostitsyn, Andrei Kostitsyn, Tomas Plekanec, Chris Higgins, Mike Komisarek, Andrei Markov, Alexei Kovalev, and Saku Koivu (among others). Then you have promising prospects in P.K. Subban, Ryan McDonagh, Ben Maxwell, David Fischer, and a variety of others. Basically, three quarters of the Habs lineup are young players who are still establishing their role in the NHL. Once the experience mounts, so will the wins, and then eventually, you will be rewarded with the almighty Silver Mug.

While the Habs have their issues (top4 d-man, a big centerman upfront) it’s all a part of the process of building a winning team. They have the tools, it’s up to them to build themselves up for a brighter future.

ronguillet@gmail.com

Canadiens and Thrashers Talking Trade

The Atlanta Thrashers are actively shopping centre Erik Christensen and veteran defenseman Mathieu Schneider and according to various sources, the Montreal Canadiens, among others, have inquired about the above players.

Christensen, 25, is having a sub-par season with the Thrashers, notching only four goals and eleven assists in 36 games. He was acquired with Colby Armstrong and Angelo Esposito for Marian Hossa and the trade deadline last season.

Christensen, 6'1'', 208-lb, is a shootout specialist with great skating abilities and soft hands. Earning only $750,000 this season, he is a restricted free agent at season's end.

Schneider, 39, is a power play specialist with a great vision and good skating abilities. He is having a rough season with the Thrashers, recording only eleven points in 39 games. He had a great season with the Ducks the year before, notching 39 points in only 65 games.

His high salary, $5.625.000/year makes is very available. He will be an unrestricted free agent at season's end.

Atlanta is reportedly seeking a middle-round draft pick and second-tier prospect.

With the long term injury to Robert Lang, the Canadiens have the cap space to absorb both players' salary.

Would you do it if you were Bob Gainey?

Bob Gainey Must Move, and Move Fast

With the latest long term injuries to veteran centre Robert Lang, winger Guillaume Latendresse and defenseman Josh Gorges, the Canadiens players are dropping like flies.

They will be joining winger Alex Tanguay (shoulder), George Laraque (back) and Mathieu Dandenault (wrist) on the injury list.

Latendresse is out for a few weeks with a shoulder injury that he sustained during Sunday's matinee against the Boston Bruins when he collided with Chuck Kobasew and fell awkwardly into the board.

Gorges is out indefinitely with concussion symptoms after he was vicously hit during Saturday's matchup against the LA Kings when Denis Gauthier nailed him with a vicious elbow to the head. Gauthier, who received a five-minute major and a game-misconduct on the play, has been suspended five games by the NHL earlier today for this behavior.

While Latendresse and Gorges were playing very well recently for a Habs team that is sinking fast, the injury to Lang is the most costly. Lang is currently leading all Canadiens forward with 18 goals and 21 assists for 39 points in 50 games. He also has a team-leading eight power play goals.

Lang's season-ending injury means Gainey must get help down the middle if he wants his team to be successful come playoffs time as neither Tomas Plekanec nor Saku Koivu have been able to pick up the slack offensively.

Youngsters like Ben Maxwell and Kyle Chipchura have shown the management that they are not ready to carry the offensive load in Lang's absence.

Who would you trade for if you were Bob Gainey?

Random Thoughts As The Leafs' Buns Are Still Red Hot

* Justin Pogge got his “pants pulled down”, plain and simple. Considering he was playing his second NHL game, and his teammates were displaying their best Andy Wozniewski impersonations, I’d say he’s deserving of a mulligan. While a couple of the goals were stoppable, it begs the question if ANY goaltender could of garnered a solid performance with the abysmal performances that were displayed in front of the netminder last night.

* I’m just throwing this out there, but does anyone notice Lee Stempniak on the ice? I sometimes forget he’s on the team.

* Stajan has 0PTS in his last 6 games. This is a little concerning considering his production during the first half of the season, but it’s nothing to burn police cruisers over. A quick glance at the Leafs’ roster will prove that every player, in every position, has endured cold streaks. It’s part of the process of rebuilding, as the Leafs’ core consists largely (and will only continue to) of young players.

* After watching the Leafs’ dismal performance last night, I can’t help but wonder if Pogge should stay clear of the Leafs altogether this season. While easing him in with the occasional game sounds like a logical plan, the Leafs’ defense will play no part in this thing we call, “logic.” One could argue that more time in the AHL will only halt his progression, but I can’t help but think the Leafs will only shatter his confidence if he were to assume the goaltending duties for the Blue and White . I mean, as nice as it is to blame the defensive woes on Vesa Toskala’s struggles, yesterday was a clear indication that the Leafs’ defense are not capable of maintaining order in their own end – even Schenn was a walloping -4.

* While Ron Wilson’s comments are considered egocentric by many, even Don Cherry had to respect his comments towards his fallen goaltender last night. “Obviously the first goal was not very good but then we pulled down his pants,” Wilson said. “Our goaltending has not been good this year. This is an opportunity for Justin. He’s going to get more opportunities. He’s going to be a great NHL goalie.” That may not seem like a Hallmark moment, but for Wilson, this is an act of defending his goaltender and placing the blame almost squarely on his defenders, who, deservingly so, need a serious adjustment in their own end. Wilson said it best: “We don’t have enough guys who care about each other. We have a few guys who should look in the mirror and say: ‘I’m not trying hard enough in my own end. I’m cheating in order to get easy points.’”

* “Enjoy Michael Cammalleri the rest of the season, because on July 1, he’ll be a Toronto Maple Leaf, making almost as much money as Jarome Iginla” – Eric Francis, The Calgary Sun. A player like Cammalleri is exactly what this franchise needs. His speed and offensive prowess would be instantly recognized, and considering his age (26), how can you go wrong? 7 million per season seems a little excessive, but if Burke can lock him up anywhere around the 6 million vicinity, the Leafs will have possession of an integral piece to their rebuilding plan.

ronguillet@gmail.com

Jason Blake a Valuable Commodity?

Don't look now, but Jason Blake is on pace for 25 goals and 56 points (in 78 games).

And don't give your eyes a rub, that's actually on your computer screen, folks.

While Don Cherry is red in the face over the coaching of Ron Wilson, Blake couldn't be happier. After registering a disappointing 15-goal (although he did have 51 points) campaign in 2007-08, Blake has flourished under Wilson, scoring 14 goals so far this season.

Blake may lack the defensive game to establish himself as an effective two-way forward, but considering his +1 rating, he's obviously doing something right.

Blake is most effective, however, as an energetic forward who uses his speed and tenacity to create scoring chances down low.

All that said, I'm going to come right out and say it: Blake does not belong on this team.

I don't care how much he improves, he just doesn't fit.

Blake is best utilized as a top-six forward. So, what's the problem? The Leafs lack top-six forwards anyway, right?

Wrong.

The Leafs are a rebuilding team. So, how exactly, does Blake fit? He doesn't implement any sort of leadership to the line-up, and at 34, he's not exactly a young stud. Even if he was there for leadership, isn't that why character players like Mayers and May were acquired in the first place?

Wilson may be responsible for the re-emergence of Blake, but the signing was a mistake ever since John Ferguson Jr. signed the dotted line two summers ago.

Blaked is signed on for three more years after this season, possessing a hefty cap-hit at 4 million dollars. It's important to note, however, that he will be making a fair 3 million dollars during the last two years of his contract.

And this, ladies and gentleman, could play a big part in the potential trading of Blake at this year's Trade Deadline.

If Blake can keep producing as an offensive juggernaut (he now has 7PTS in his last 4GP), the Minnesota-native may generate some interest once March 4^th swings around.

It's entirely possible the Leafs continue to be handcuffed with his lucrative contract, but don't be surprised if Burke ends up unloading him, even if it's for a mid-round draft pick (although I would imagine the Leafs would be taking some salary back).

So, what do you think? Is a trade possible? Do you want him off the team? If so, what type of return are you expecting?

ronguillet@gmail.com